Where the math is defensible.
Long-form research on live enterprise decisions. Publication is selective. Every number traces to a named source. No takes without evidence.
Colombia 2026: Petro fiscal arithmetic and the post Bogota electoral year
Gustavo Petro enters his final budget cycle with a 57 percent debt path, a fragile fiscal rule, and an Ecopetrol production curve that no longer finances his social spending agenda. The 2026 municipal cycle and a recomposed Senate decide whether the cambio coalition holds.
Colombia under President Gustavo Petro reaches 2026 with the fiscal arithmetic critics warned about in 2022. Central government debt sits near 57 percent of GDP per Ministerio de Hacienda fiscal year 2024 figures, the Comite Autonomo de la Regla Fiscal (CARF) has issued repeated unfavorable opinions on the medium-term framework, and Ecope...
Latin America Soybean Cycle 2026: Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay
South American supply, Chinese demand, and ENSO neutrality define the 2026 to 2027 oilseed map. Ceres assesses three trade scenarios.
The 2025 to 2026 Latin American soybean cycle marks a structural reset for the global oilseed complex. Brazil is on track for a record harvest above 175 million tonnes, Argentina is rebuilding stocks after the 2023 to 2024 drought, and the Paraguay and Uruguay cluster is consolidating its role as a swing supplier to China and the European...
Peru Mining Under Boluarte: Political Risk Through the 2026 Election Cycle
President Dina Boluarte enters her last full year of office with single digit approval, a fragmented Congress, and a copper sector that the state cannot afford to disturb. The April 2026 first round and June 2026 runoff will reset the rules under which Las Bambas, Quellaveco, and the Tia Maria pipeline operate.
Peru is the world's second largest copper producer at roughly 2.6 million tonnes per year, and its political settlement is the variable that decides whether the next administration can hold the line. President Dina Boluarte governs with approval near 5 percent, a Congress that has rejected three constitutional vacancia motions, and a memo...